INDEPENDENCE IS INEVITABLE SAY UK BUSINESS LEADERS

ONLY 4% of the UK’s most senior business leaders say they don't believe Scotland will take back its independence, with most chief executives and finance directors relaxed about the prospect, according to a dramatic new poll.

The survey carried out by leading research company Ipsos MORI found 95% of the top executives are confident their company will adapt to the new constitutional arrangement.

It also revealed 54% of those questioned either disagreed or strongly disagreed with the following statement: “If Scotland becomes an independent country it could be a significant risk to my company.” A further 19% had no opinion, with only 22% out of the 100 agreeing with the statement.

The survey, published today, was based on interviews with 102 chairmen, chief executive officers, managing directors, chief operating officers, financial directors or other executive board directors. Their companies are all among the UK’s top 500 by turnover.

The research was carried out between February to July this year before the UK Government announced it intended to override the withdrawal agreement it signed with the EU – a move which Brussels has warned increases the prospect of a No-Deal Brexit.

A series of recent surveys have suggested that there is rising support for independence, with one poll saying 55% of Scots now back it, with all the rest putting the majority at between 53% - 54%.

Some pollsters have found that swing voters have switched believing that Scotland will offer greater future certainty than remaining in Brexit Britain.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon earlier this year put plans to hold a second referendum on hold amid the coronavirus pandemic but announced in her Programme for Government that she would bring forward a draft bill to hold a new vote.

She said the legislation would set out the terms, timing and question in the referendum.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, said: “With a Holyrood election looming and recent polls showing that public opinion has tipped in favour of Scottish independence, we are likely to see renewed debate about the economic implications of independence.

“This survey shows that the leaders of the UK’s biggest businesses are relatively relaxed about the new landscape brought by Scottish independence for their companies, viewing it as something they will adapt to if, or when, necessary.”

The mood about independence among business leaders marks significant sea change from before the 2014 vote and is a welcome boost for the Yes side.

Two weeks ahead of the referendum more than 120 business people in sectors ranging from finance to whisky were coerced by unionist figures into signing an open letter telling voters that the business case for independence had “not been made”.

The letter, organised by Keith Cochrane, chief executive of Weir Group and signed by figures included Ian Marchant, former chief executive of the utility firm SSE and Andrew Mackenzie, chief executive of miner BHP Billiton, handed a major boost to Westminster.

Welcoming the results of today’s survey a spokesman for the country's Economy Secretary said: “This poll of business leaders shows that, overwhelmingly, they are confident their companies will thrive in Scotland – and it also shows that the vast majority expect the country to be independent.

“That reflects the views of people across Scotland as a whole, with support for independence now becoming a pursuit of the majority.

“People also now believe independence will prove beneficial for the economy, which is no surprise when the alternative is the Tories’ dismal post-Brexit vision which cuts Scotland off from the world’s largest marketplace.”

Of course when faced with this reality, the Tories, and some British Labour and Liberal figures, like to peddle the line that Scotland does more trade with the rest of the UK than it does the EU, delivered almost like some sort of threat: "If you take over the management of your country from Westminster, we'll tell people to stop buying your produce."

I'm not sure the people of Scotland will take kindly to such talk.