UNION COMING APART AS ANOTHER POLL PUTS INDEPENDENCE INTO 12 POINT LEAD
12-point lead for a Yes vote in any future independence referendum.
Brexit, the U.K. government’s mis-handling of Covid19 and a desire to settle the question once and for all, were among the most persuasive arguments among undecided and swing voters. The public were surveyed by JL Partners, the firm led by Theresa May’s former pollster James Johnson. But none proved as persuasive as the argument: “Boris Johnson is not the leader I want to have for my country” — a sentiment 79 percent of swing voters agreed with.
The poll of Scottish voters, conducted in September, gave independence a massive 12 point lead; 56% to 44%, excluding those who said they didn't know. The 12-point lead is in line with other recent polls showing a growing lead for a Yes vote in any future referendum.
Fifty-five percent of voters were convinced to vote against their country's independence during Scotland’s first referendum in 2014. But many of the promises made to the Scottish people by Unionist politicians have since been broken.
One of the most convincing arguments for voting No was made by Unionists who told voters that only by voting No could people secure their place as EU members. Then a year and a half later they find themselves being dragged out of Europe by the votes of the English and Welsh.
Worryingly for Unionists in London, the study also found that the U.K. government’s current opposition to holding a referendum on how the country means to be governed, would prove deeply unpopular should First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s party (the SNP) win a majority in next May’s parliamentary elections, with 53 percent of swing voters surveyed last month saying the U.K. government would be wrong to deny a new referendum in that scenario.
A move that would likely strengthen and crystalize support for independence, just as recent blocking tactics by Westminster appears to have done, and as one well known psephologist has recently said: this sort of move would possibly only delay the inevitable and in all likelihood, add more surety to a positive outcome for the independence movement. Reason being, it would gather even more momentum from a needless and very visible prescription of grievance inflicted upon the country's sense of self determination. Something David Cameron was very careful not to do.
An SNP majority in Scotland is considered increasingly likely, with the poll putting the party well ahead on 58 percent of the constituency vote.
The U.K. government currently says the matter of Scottish independence was “settled” in 2014.
When former Prime Minister Theresa May faced calls for a second referendum during her spell in office she deflected, insisting “now is not the time,” a stance which James Johnson, founder of J.L. Partners, said was backed by No. 10’s polling of Scottish opinion at the time.
Now, he said, the picture had “dramatically changed” and is “bleak” for unionists.
“It is hard not to look at these figures and assume the Union is indeed coming to its end. It is certainly the gravest place the Union has found itself in in recent history,” James Johnson said.
Pro-independence sentiment had already been on the rise in Scotland since the U.K. voted to leave the EU in 2016, when Scottish voters backed Remain in 32 out of 32 local constituency areas.
Boris Johnson’s lack of popularity in Scotland has long been understood by No 10. However, the pandemic — and specifically perceptions of how well Johnson and Sturgeon respectively have performed — appears to have galvanized SNP support, with the poll finding that 84 percent of swing voters think the U.K. government handled the situation badly, compared to 74 percent who say the Scottish government handled it well.
Should a second referendum be held, the choice of spokespeople for the unionist campaign will be crucial, the polling suggests. The role of the opposition Labour party, which is pro-union, will be key, with more than one in five Scottish voters who backed the party at the 2019 general election currently saying they would vote for independence.
Labour figures like party leader Keir Starmer, former Prime Minister Gordon Brown and former Chancellor Alistair Darling (the latter two both Scots) are viewed particularly positively among undecided voters.
Among Conservative union advocates, Chancellor Rishi Sunak and former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson are viewed favourably.
“The chancellor has a net rating of +30 with Scottish swing voters, higher than Keir Starmer, Gordon Brown, Alex Ferguson, and even the Queen,” James Johnson said. “Ruth has lost some of her media popularity of late, but still gets a small positive judgment from voters. No. 10 should lock away Boris, and put up Rishi and Ruth.”
“In focus groups [Boris Johnson] is not just criticized in the way David Cameron and Theresa May were,” James Johnson adds, “but loathed.”
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