ASHCROFT SUPER POLL: SNP AHEAD | INDEPENDENCE NECK & NECK

SNP supporters are the most likely to actually turn out to vote for Nicola Sturgeon than those of rival parties, a new in-depth poll ahead of next week's Holyrood election has found.

The 2000 person mega-poll - twice as large as the usual survey samples - by Lord Ashcroft confirmed the SNP as the most popular party in Scotland, and Nicola Sturgeon the most popular leader.

But the survey found that support for the Union remains on a knife edge, with 51% backing the UK compared to 49% in favour of independence, once don't knows are excluded.

Unlike other polls which ask for voting intention, Ashcroft asked voters to rate how likely they are to use their vote for each of the parties, on a scale of 0-100.

In the constituency vote the SNP won over 49 per cent of those who rated the likelihood of voting for at least one party at more than 50 out of 100.

The Tories were on 21 per cent, Labour on 17 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats on eight per cent.

On the list vote, the SNP were the most popular first vote choice for 42 per cent of those who rated the likelihood of voting for at least one party at more than 50 out of 100.

The Tories were the first choice for 22 per cent, Labour 16 per cent, the Greens 9 per cent, the Lib Dems 7 per cent, while Alex Salmond’s Alba and Michelle Ballantyne’s anti-lockdown Reform party were each on two per cent.

From the responses it was not possible to predict how many MSPs each party will get but the polling gave an insight into voting priorities and the importance of a number of issues:

44 per cent of Scots said they would vote Yes to independence, while 45 per cent said they would back No. When the 11 per cent who said they didn’t know how they’d vote are removed, this gives No a small lead of 51 per cent to 49 per cent.

SNP voters were 84 per cent in favour of independence. while 95 per cent of Tories were against, with 75 per cent of Labour voters against and and 79 per cent of Lib Dems.

Scottish Greens supporters are split on the constitution with 43 per cent pro-independence and 46 per cent against.

11 per cent of Yes voters would now vote No and 15 per cent of pro-UK voters in 2014 would now back independence.

Scottish voters listed healthcare and the NHS (43 per cent) as well as Covid-19 (42 per cent) as the most important issues facing Scotland, closely followed by the economy at 33 per cent.

34 per cent of SNP supporters see getting another referendum as the most important issue, eight points behind the NHS and nine behind dealing with Covid-19.

But independence still dominates the agenda, Over a third of Scottish Conservatives supporters said it was the most important issue for them (36 per cent), and just below a fifth of SNP supporters said the same (23 per cent).

Half of all voters thought an independent Scotland would need to make “painful cuts in spending”. Most think (63 percent) that taxes would rise and 52 per cent believe food prices would increase.

A third of Scots, 35 per cent, expected Scotland to keep the pound after independence, while 22 per cent thought it would not.

Only 40 per cent of Yes voters think there would be a hard border with the UK after independence while 46 per cent of pro-UK voters do not think there would be.

On the pandemic well over half of voters also believed the Scottish Government (60 per cent) and Nicola Sturgeon (64 per cent) had handled the covid pandemic well.

Voters across the board – SNP, Scottish Greens, Scottish Labour, Scottish Liberal Democrats and even a third (32 per cent) of Scottish Conservatives supporters – felt Nicola Sturgeon had done a good job as First Minster during the crisis.