POLLS SHOW 22 POINT LEAD FOR SNP | 51% YES FOR INDEPENDENCE

The SNP have a massive 22-point lead in a new Scottish poll for Sky News, which would see Nicola Sturgeon remain First Minister after the May elections.

The exclusive Opinium poll of Scottish voters, taken this week, also reveals 51% of Scots would support independence - against 49% who say they would remain part of the United Kingdom.

Opinium found that when voters were asked about the upcoming Holyrood elections, the SNP would get 46% of the constituency vote, Conservatives 24%, Labour 20%, Lib Dems 6% and the Greens 4%.

When casting their second vote for a representative for the electoral region, the poll puts the SNP on 42%, Tories on 22%, Labour on 19%, the Greens on 7% and Lib Dems on 5%.

While still giving Ms Sturgeon's SNP a clear lead, the 46% who say they would vote for the SNP in their local constituencies represents the lowest proportion for the party in any poll since the December 2019 general election.

Every poll of 2020 recorded the SNP share of the constituency vote above 50%, peaking at 58% in September and October, suggesting that the SNP's recent troubles have dented their poll rating.

However this should be treated with a good deal of caution as polls from other companies are not directly comparable and Opinium has not conducted a Scottish poll since the 2019 general election.

The result of today's Opinium poll would deliver a similar result to the one seen in 2016 in Holyrood.

Using a uniform swing calculator, a crude method to predict the number of seats using the percentage share of the vote, Opinium says that the poll results would mean the SNP gain one seat to 64 seats but still be one short of a majority. However the pro independence Greens would win 7 seats and this would give the country another pro independence parliament.

The Tories would be down two to 29 seats, Labour unchanged on 24 seats and the Greens up one seat to seven.

The poll found another majority for independence, 51% in favour to 49% against once "don't knows" are removed.

The poll found Ms Sturgeon is still highly popular in Scotland, with a 27-point approval rating, compared with Boris Johnson who gets a rating of -35 and Keir Starmer on -11.

Douglas Ross, the Tory leader in Scotland, is also in negative territory on -15, while Anas Sarwar, who was elected Labour leader this month, has a net approval score of 0.

Most Scots with a view, 47%, still want to rejoin the EU, although this is lower than the proportion who voted to remain in 2016.

Of the remainder who have a view, 14% want a closer relationship than that currently negotiated, 12% think the current relationship is right, while 16% want a more distant relationship.

Opinium conducted this survey for Sky News from 11 to 16 March.